MeritValue

OLIN Corp

OLNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OLIN Corp earns about 14% on invested capital, and has bought back 30% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $40.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.91B1$9.38B2$6.83B3$6.54B3$6.78B3
Net income$1.3B4$1.33B5$452M6$105M6−$101.1M6
Operating cash flow$1.74B7$1.92B8$974.3M9$503.2M9$474.2M9
Capital expenditure$200.6M10$236.9M11$236M12$195.1M12$226.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.54B7$1.69B8$738.3M9$308.1M9$247.9M9
Total debt$2.78B13$2.58B14$5.36B15$5.7B16$5.67B16
Cash & equivalents$180.5M17$194M18$170.3M19$175.6M20$167.6M20
Diluted shares163.0M148.5M128.8M119.5M114.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$160.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$8.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$495

10 shares is a claim on $160.46 of net worth that earned you −$8.82 and generated $21.63 of cash last year, against $495 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 30%FY22 29%FY23 8%FY24 3%FY25 0%

It earned an average 14% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−30% shares · 5y

Share count is down 30% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 104% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$308.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$308.1M
Earnings Power Value
$40.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$452M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074303-24-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074303-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074303-26-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074303-24-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074303-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074303-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074303-24-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074303-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074303-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074303-24-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074303-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074303-26-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074303-23-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074303-24-000041 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074303-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000074303-26-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000074303-23-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000074303-24-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000074303-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000074303-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)