MeritValue

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

OLMAdata completeness 63%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns about -36% on equity, but has diluted owners by 120% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$71.1M1−$104.8M2−$96.7M3−$129.5M4−$162.5M4
Operating cash flow−$50.7M5−$82.1M6−$83.7M7−$104.4M8−$146.7M8
Capital expenditure$1.58M9$363,00010—$159,00011—
Free cash flow (derived)−$52.3M5−$82.4M6—−$104.5M8—
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$13.8M12$23.7M13$68.5M14$139.5M15$48.3M15
Diluted shares39.5M40.0M45.2M58.7M87.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.67
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $55 of net worth that earned you −$18.67 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-36% avg · 5y
FY21 -25%FY22 -53%FY23 -38%FY24 -32%FY25 -34%

It earned an average -36% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+120% shares · 5y

Share count is up 120% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003318 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029281 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041204 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-107169 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003318 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029281 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041204 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-107169 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003318 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029281 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-107169 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003318 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029281 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041204 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-107169 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)