MeritValue

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.

OLLIdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.44 and $129.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.75B1$1.83B2$2.1B3$2.27B3$2.65B3
Net income$157.5M4$102.8M5$181.4M6$199.8M6$240.6M6
Operating cash flow$45M7$114.3M8$254.5M9$227.5M9$296.5M9
Capital expenditure$35M10$51.7M11$124.4M12$120.6M12$101.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$10M7$62.7M8$130.1M9$106.9M9$194.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$247M13$210.6M14$266.3M15$205.1M16$259.7M16
Diluted shares64.9M62.7M62.1M61.8M61.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$305.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.51
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $305.65 of net worth that earned you $38.95 and generated $31.51 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY22 15%FY23 9%FY24 15%FY25 13%FY26 15%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.44 and $129.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$129.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$130.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$72.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$130.1M
Earnings Power Value
$30.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$181.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$51.72
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $72.87
The three cases
Bear0.0%$34.29
Base20.0%$72.87
Bull20.0%$72.87

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001140361-24-015681 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001140361-25-010442 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001140361-26-010409 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001140361-24-015681 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001140361-25-010442 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001140361-26-010409 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001140361-24-015681 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001140361-25-010442 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001140361-26-010409 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001140361-24-015681 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001140361-25-010442 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001140361-26-010409 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001140361-23-013669 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001140361-24-015681 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001140361-25-010442 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001140361-26-010409 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)