MeritValue

UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP \PA\

OLEDdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP \PA\ earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $45.68 and $84.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$553.5M1$616.6M2$576.4M3$647.7M3$650.6M3
Net income$184.2M4$210.1M5$203M6$222.1M6$242.1M6
Operating cash flow$191.1M7$126.8M8$154.8M9$253.7M9$210.8M9
Capital expenditure$43.2M10$42.5M11$59.8M12$42.6M12$56.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$147.9M7$84.3M8$95M9$211.1M9$154.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$312M13$93.4M14$92M15$99M16$138.4M16
Diluted shares47.4M47.5M47.6M47.7M47.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$369.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$50.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.39
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $369.51 of net worth that earned you $50.79 and generated $32.39 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 18%FY23 15%FY24 15%FY25 15%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $45.68 and $84.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$84.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.5%
  • fcfBase$154.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$69.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.5%
  • fcfBase$154.4M
Earnings Power Value
$45.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$210.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$64.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $69.55
The three cases
Bear0.0%$49.18
Base8.5%$69.55
Bull13.5%$84.69

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018765 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024151 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059371 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018765 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024151 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059371 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018765 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024151 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059371 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018765 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024151 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059371 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018765 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024151 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059371 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)