MeritValue

Okta, Inc.

OKTAdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Okta, Inc. earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $139.72 and $251.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.3B1$1.86B2$2.26B3$2.61B3$2.92B3
Net income−$848M4−$815M5−$355M6$28M6$235M6
Operating cash flow$104M7$86M8$512M9$750M9$884M9
Capital expenditure$13M10$12M11$8M12$8M12$9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$91M7$74M8$504M9$742M9$875M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$260M13$264M14$334M15$409M15$858M15
Diluted shares148.0M158.0M163.6M175.1M179.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$390.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.11
Free cash flow it threw off
$48.8
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $390.37 of net worth that earned you $13.11 and generated $48.8 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY22 -11%FY23 -12%FY24 -5%FY25 0%FY26 4%

It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $139.72 and $251.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$251.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$742M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$139.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$742M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$33.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $139.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.92
Base20.0%$139.72
Bull20.0%$139.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001660134-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001660134-25-000049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001660134-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001660134-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001660134-25-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001660134-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001660134-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001660134-25-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001660134-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001660134-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001660134-25-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001660134-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001660134-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001660134-25-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001660134-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)