MeritValue

ONEOK INC /NEW/

OKEdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ONEOK INC /NEW/ earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 40% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.02 and $184.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$16.5B1$22.4B2$17.7B3$21.7B3$33.6B3
Net income$1.5B4$1.72B5$2.66B6$3.04B6$3.39B6
Operating cash flow$2.55B7$2.91B8$4.42B9$4.89B9$5.6B9
Capital expenditure$697M10$1.2B11$1.6B12$2.02B12$3.15B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.85B7$1.7B8$2.83B9$2.87B9$2.45B9
Total debt$27.2B13$27.2B14$43.4B15$64.2B16$33.6B16
Cash & equivalents$146.4M17$220M18$338M19$733M20$78M20
Diluted shares447.4M448.4M485.4M586.5M625.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$359.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$54.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$537.4

10 shares is a claim on $359.24 of net worth that earned you $54.21 and generated $39.1 of cash last year, against $537.4 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 7%FY23 6%FY24 4%FY25 6%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+40% shares · 5y

Share count is up 40% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 23% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.02 and $184.9 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$184.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.4%
  • fcfBase$2.83B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$84.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.4%
  • fcfBase$2.83B
Earnings Power Value
$44.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.66B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$66.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $84.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.9
Base18.4%$84.57
Bull20.0%$93.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001039684-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039684-25-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001039684-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001039684-24-000015 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039684-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001039684-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001039684-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039684-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001039684-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001039684-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039684-25-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001039684-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001039684-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039684-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001039684-25-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001039684-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001039684-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039684-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001039684-25-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001039684-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)