MeritValue

OIL STATES INTERNATIONAL, INC

OISdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OIL STATES INTERNATIONAL, INC earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.65 and $26.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$573.2M1$737.7M2$782.3M3$692.6M3$669M3
Net income−$64M4−$9.54M5$12.9M6−$11.3M6−$109.4M6
Operating cash flow$7.19M7$32.9M8$56.6M9$45.9M9$105.1M9
Capital expenditure$17.5M10$20.3M10$30.7M11$37.5M11$31.2M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$10.3M7$12.6M8$25.9M9$8.39M9$73.9M9
Total debt$178.8M12$152.9M13$136.1M14$125.3M15$55M15
Cash & equivalents$52.9M16$42M17$47.1M18$65.4M19$69.9M19
Diluted shares60.3M61.6M63.2M62.0M58.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$97.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$9.38

10 shares is a claim on $97.65 of net worth that earned you −$18.63 and generated $12.6 of cash last year, against $9.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 -6%FY22 1%FY23 3%FY24 -1%FY25 -15%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 69% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.65 and $26.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$26.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$25.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$25.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.56
Base20.0%$14.65
Bull20.0%$14.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001121484-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001121484-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001121484-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001121484-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001121484-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001121484-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001121484-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001121484-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001121484-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001121484-23-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001121484-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001121484-23-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001121484-24-000021 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001121484-25-000024 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001121484-26-000012 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001121484-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001121484-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001121484-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001121484-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)