OIO Group

OIOdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

OIO Group earns about -190% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 556% over 3 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.53 and $0.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$4.99M1$6.16M2$6.1M2
Net income−$2.39M3−$95M4−$633,2574
Operating cash flow$1.97M5$5.28M6−$3.11M6
Capital expenditure$502,6777$651,0448$304,7558
Free cash flow (derived)$1.47M5$4.63M6−$3.42M6
Total debt$5.8M9$5.78M10$4.32M10
Cash & equivalents$252,39911$366,76111$634,88211
Diluted shares6.4M23.0M41.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.15
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.03

10 shares is a claim on $3.52 of net worth that earned you −$0.15 and generated −$0.82 of cash last year, against $1.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-190% avg · 3y
FY22 -10%FY23 -558%FY24 -3%

It earned about -190% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+556% shares · 3y

Share count is up 556% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 26% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.53 and $0.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.47M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.47M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.53
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.41
Base5.0%$0.53
Bull10.0%$0.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-020109 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-006599 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-020109 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-006599 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-020109 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-006599 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-020109 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-006599 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-020109 (Borrowings)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-006599 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-006599 (CashAndCashEquivalents)