OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS INC
OHIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileOMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 25% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.55 and $22.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.06B1 | $878.2M2 | $949.7M3 | $1.05B3 | $1.19B3 |
| Net income | $428.3M4 | $438.8M5 | $242.2M6 | $406.3M6 | $590.2M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $722.1M7 | $625.7M8 | $617.7M9 | $749.4M9 | $878.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $44.9M10 | $47.2M11 | $38M12 | $37.8M12 | $80.9M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $677.2M7 | $578.5M8 | $579.7M9 | $711.7M9 | $797.7M9 |
| Total debt | $5.25B13 | $5.29B14 | $5.07B15 | $4.84B16 | $4.26B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $20.5M17 | $297.1M18 | $442.8M19 | $518.3M19 | $27M19 |
| Diluted shares | 244.3M | 244.3M | 250.5M | 270.4M | 305.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $169.91 of net worth that earned you $19.35 and generated $26.16 of cash last year, against $139.56 of debt.
It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 25% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.55 and $22.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth1.7%
- fcfBase$711.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth1.7%
- fcfBase$711.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$428.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $19.48 |
| Base | 1.7% | $22.01 |
| Bull | 6.7% | $30.58 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 1.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000888491-24-000007 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000888491-25-000006 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000888491-26-000008 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000888491-24-000007 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000888491-25-000006 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000888491-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000888491-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000888491-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000888491-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000888491-24-000007 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000888491-25-000006 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000888491-26-000008 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000888491-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000888491-24-000007 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000888491-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000888491-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000888491-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000888491-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000888491-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)