MeritValue

Organon & Co.

OGNdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Organon & Co. earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $36.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.3B1$6.17B2$6.26B3$6.4B3$6.22B3
Net income$1.35B4$917M5$1.02B6$864M6$187M6
Operating cash flow$2.16B7$858M8$799M9$939M9$700M9
Capital expenditure$192M10$196M11$251M12$175M12$162M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.97B7$662M8$548M9$764M9$538M9
Total debt$18.3B13$17.8B14$17.5B15$17.8B16$17.3B16
Cash & equivalents$737M17$706M18$693M19$675M20$574M20
Diluted shares254.2M255.2M256.3M259.2M260.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$20.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$662.97

10 shares is a claim on $28.84 of net worth that earned you $7.17 and generated $20.63 of cash last year, against $662.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 8%FY23 7%FY24 8%FY25 3%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$548M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$548M
Earnings Power Value
$36.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$917M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006733 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-108693 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011125 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006733 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-108693 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011125 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006733 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-108693 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011125 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006733 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-108693 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011125 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001821825-23-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006733 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-108693 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011125 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001821825-23-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006733 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-108693 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011125 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)