MeritValue

OGE ENERGY CORP.

OGEdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OGE ENERGY CORP. earns about 5% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $24.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.59B1$3.3B2$2.61B3$2.92B3$3.19B3
Net income$737.3M4$665.7M5$416.8M6$441.5M6$470.7M6
Operating cash flow−$229.9M7$952.4M8$1.23B9$812.8M9$1.14B9
Capital expenditure$778.5M10$1.05B11$1.18B12$1.09B12$1.05B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.01B7−$98.5M8$54.1M9−$278.1M9$82.7M9
Total debt$9.48B13$9.1B14$9.18B15$10.6B16$11B16
Cash & equivalents$017$88.1M18$200,00019$600,00020$200,00020
Diluted shares200.3M200.8M200.9M201.3M202.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$245.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$544.71

10 shares is a claim on $245.79 of net worth that earned you $23.24 and generated $4.08 of cash last year, against $544.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 6%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$54.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$54.1M
Earnings Power Value
$24.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$470.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$35.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017400 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022560 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-055414 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017400 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022560 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-055414 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017400 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022560 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-055414 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017400 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022560 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-055414 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003858 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017400 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022560 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-055414 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003858 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017400 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022560 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-055414 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)