Omega Flex, Inc.

OFLXdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Omega Flex, Inc. earns about 70% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.32 and $32.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$130M1$125.5M1$111.5M2$101.7M3$98.3M3
Net income$26.2M4$23.6M4$20.8M5$18M6$14.8M6
Operating cash flow$25.1M7$15.2M7$23.4M8$20.9M9$17.2M9
Capital expenditure$971,00010$942,00010$1.64M11$2.01M12$1.82M12
Free cash flow (derived)$24.2M7$14.3M7$21.8M8$18.9M9$15.4M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$32.9M13$37.7M14$46.4M15$51.7M16$53.2M16
Diluted shares10.1M10.1M10.1M10.1M10.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$83.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.21
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $83.4 of net worth that earned you $14.69 and generated $15.21 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
70% avg · 5y
FY21 96%FY22 71%FY23 68%FY24 63%FY25 52%

It earned about 70% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.32 and $32.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$30.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.2%
  • fcfBase$18.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.2%
  • fcfBase$18.9M
Earnings Power Value
$21.32
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$20.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$31.96
Base0.2%$32.18
Bull5.2%$38.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009591 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009512 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009876 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009591 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009512 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009876 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009591 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009512 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009876 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009591 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009512 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009876 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007242 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009591 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009512 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009876 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)