MeritValue

Orthofix Medical Inc.

OFIXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Orthofix Medical Inc. earns about -12% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 101% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$464.5M1$460.7M2$746.6M3$799.5M3$822.3M3
Net income−$38.4M4−$19.7M5−$151.4M6−$126M6−$92.2M6
Operating cash flow$18.5M7−$11.5M8−$45.8M9$25.8M9$33.3M9
Capital expenditure$17.8M10$21.4M10$60.3M10$34.9M11$34.6M11
Free cash flow (derived)$690,0007−$32.9M8−$106M9−$9.09M9−$1.28M9
Total debt——$188.7M12$314M13$157.4M13
Cash & equivalents$87.8M14$50.7M15$33.1M16$83.2M16$82M16
Diluted shares19.7M20.1M36.7M38.1M39.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$113.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$23.28
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$39.74

10 shares is a claim on $113.64 of net worth that earned you −$23.28 and generated −$0.32 of cash last year, against $39.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-12% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 -5%FY23 -16%FY24 -17%FY25 -16%

It earned an average -12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+101% shares · 5y

Share count is up 101% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 17% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025877 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026066 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065189 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025877 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065189 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025877 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065189 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025877 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065189 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026066 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065189 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025877 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-065189 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)