MeritValue

OFG BANCORP

OFGdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OFG BANCORP earns about 101% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.11 and $331.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$01$01$750.3M2$780.9M2
Net income$146.2M3$166.2M4$181.9M5$198.2M5$205.1M5
Operating cash flow$100M6$164.5M7$295.7M8$252.5M8$217.7M8
Capital expenditure$23.1M9$31M10$17.9M11$21.3M11$18.4M11
Free cash flow (derived)$77M6$133.5M7$277.8M8$231.2M8$199.3M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.02B12$550.3M13$748.2M14$591.1M15$1.04B15
Diluted shares51.4M48.4M47.6M46.9M44.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$310.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$45.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$44.53
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $310.55 of net worth that earned you $45.82 and generated $44.53 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
101% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 38%FY23 54%FY24 99%FY25 211%

It earned about 101% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.11 and $331.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$331.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$231.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$191.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$231.2M
Earnings Power Value
$42.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$181.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$56.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $191.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$97.03
Base20.0%$191.62
Bull20.0%$191.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001030469-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001030469-26-000008 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001030469-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001030469-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001030469-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001030469-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001030469-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001030469-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001030469-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001030469-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001030469-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001030469-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001030469-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001030469-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001030469-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)