MeritValue

Orion S.A.

OECdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Orion S.A. earns about 6% on invested capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $19.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.55B1$2.03B2$1.89B3$1.88B3$1.81B3
Net income$134.7M4$106.2M5$103.5M6$44.2M6−$70.1M6
Operating cash flow$145.2M7$81M8$345.9M9$125.3M9$215.8M9
Capital expenditure$214.7M10$232.8M10$172.8M11$206.7M11$161M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$69.5M7−$151.8M8$173.1M9−$81.4M9$54.8M9
Total debt$1.08B12$1.43B13$1.09B14$1.42B15$1.57B15
Cash & equivalents$65.7M16$60.8M17$37.5M18$44.2M18$60.7M18
Diluted shares61.0M61.4M60.0M58.4M56.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$68.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.73
Debt you’d be carrying
$279.51

10 shares is a claim on $68.28 of net worth that earned you −$12.45 and generated $9.73 of cash last year, against $279.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 7%FY23 9%FY24 2%FY25 -1%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 45% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$54.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$54.8M
Earnings Power Value
$19.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$103.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609804-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609804-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008601 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609804-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609804-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008601 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609804-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609804-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008601 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609804-23-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008601 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609804-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609804-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609804-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008601 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609804-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609804-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008601 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)