MeritValue

OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC.

ODFLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. earns about 31% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 82% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $58.09 and $100.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.26B1$6.26B2$5.87B3$5.81B3$5.5B3
Net income$1.03B4$1.38B5$1.24B6$1.19B6$1.02B6
Operating cash flow$1.21B7$1.69B8$1.57B9$1.66B9$1.37B9
Capital expenditure$550.1M10$775.1M11$757.3M12$771.3M12$415M12
Free cash flow (derived)$662.5M7$916.4M8$811.8M9$888M9$955.1M9
Total debt—$20M13$20M14$20M15$20M15
Cash & equivalents$462.6M16$186.3M17$433.8M18$108.7M19$120.1M19
Diluted shares116.4M226.2M220.2M216.5M211.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$203.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$48.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$45.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.95

10 shares is a claim on $203.74 of net worth that earned you $48.38 and generated $45.14 of cash last year, against $0.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 5y
FY21 32%FY22 39%FY23 32%FY24 29%FY25 24%

It earned about 31% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+82% shares · 5y

Share count is up 82% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $58.09 and $100.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$100.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.8%
  • fcfBase$888M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$84.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.8%
  • fcfBase$888M
Earnings Power Value
$58.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.19B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.1
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $84.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$60.43
Base7.8%$84.45
Bull12.8%$103.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020176 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026661 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067161 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020176 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026661 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067161 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020176 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026661 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067161 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020176 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026661 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067161 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020176 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026661 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067161 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003783 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020176 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026661 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067161 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)