MeritValue

OCULAR THERAPEUTIX, INC

OCULdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

OCULAR THERAPEUTIX, INC earns about -80% on equity, but has diluted owners by 128% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$43.5M1$51.5M2$58.4M3$63.7M3$52M3
Net income−$6.55M4−$71M5−$80.7M6−$193.5M6−$265.9M6
Operating cash flow−$65.6M7−$59.6M8−$70.2M9−$134.7M9−$204.9M9
Capital expenditure$1.19M10$3.72M11$6.09M12$1.29M12$12M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$66.7M7−$63.3M8−$76.3M9−$136M9−$216.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$164.2M13$102.3M14$195.8M15$392.1M15$737.1M15
Diluted shares82.2M82.6M85.6M158.3M187.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$34.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.2
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.58
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $34.94 of net worth that earned you −$14.2 and generated −$11.58 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-80% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 -201%FY23 -89%FY24 -61%FY25 -41%

It earned an average -80% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+128% shares · 5y

Share count is up 128% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002902 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002000 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-010664 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002902 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002000 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-010664 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002902 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002000 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-010664 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002902 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002000 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-010664 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002902 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002000 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-010664 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)