MeritValue

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp

OCSLdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp earns about 7% on equity, but has diluted owners by 59% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$237.3M1$29.2M2$117.3M3$57.9M3$33.9M3
Operating cash flow−$230.5M4$22.4M5$228.8M6$19.1M6$228.4M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$1.3B7$1.6B8$1.64B9$1.49B9
Cash & equivalents$29.3M10$23.5M11$136.5M12$64M12$79.6M12
Diluted shares54.0M60.7M72.1M80.4M86.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$170.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.94
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$172.73

10 shares is a claim on $170.29 of net worth that earned you $3.94 last year, against $172.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
7% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 2%FY23 8%FY24 4%FY25 2%

It earned an average 7% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+59% shares · 5y

Share count is up 59% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 14% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$6.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$57.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.22
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001414932-23-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001414932-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001414932-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001414932-23-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001414932-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001414932-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001414932-23-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001414932-24-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001414932-25-000022 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001414932-23-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001414932-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001414932-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)