MeritValue

Ocugen, Inc.

OCGNdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ocugen, Inc. earns about -130% on equity, but has diluted owners by 60% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$2.49M2$6.04M3$4.06M4$4.41M4
Net income−$58.4M5−$86.8M6−$63.1M7−$54.1M8−$67.8M8
Operating cash flow−$47.9M9−$60.1M10−$62.1M11−$42.1M12−$57M12
Capital expenditure$939,00013$4.46M14$10.5M15$3.39M16$185,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$48.9M9−$64.5M10−$72.5M11−$45.5M12−$57.1M12
Total debt$3.42M17$2.29M18$2.8M19$28.7M20$28.8M20
Cash & equivalents$95M21$77.6M22$39.5M22$58.8M23$18.9M23
Diluted shares195.0M214.6M244.3M291.4M312.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$0.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.17
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.92

10 shares is a claim on −$0.39 of net worth that earned you −$2.17 and generated −$1.83 of cash last year, against $0.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-130% avg · 5y
FY21 -64%FY22 -117%FY23 -156%FY24 -182%FY25 —

It earned an average -130% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+60% shares · 5y

Share count is up 60% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 741% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-004085 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016378 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010271 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014435 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005382 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016378 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010271 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014435 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005382 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016378 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010271 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014435 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005382 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016378 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010271 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014435 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005382 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016378 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010271 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014435 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005382 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-016378 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014435 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)