MeritValue

OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP

OCFCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.39 and $18.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$342.1M1$431.2M2$608M3$642.2M3$642.5M3
Net income$110.1M4$146.6M5$104M6$100.1M6$71M6
Operating cash flow$160M7$250.5M8$124.3M9$92.2M9$87.2M9
Capital expenditure$42M10$16.1M11$7.71M12$7.57M12$7.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$117.9M7$234.3M8$116.6M9$84.7M9$79.5M9
Total debt$229.1M13$195.4M14$196.5M15$197.5M16$255.2M17
Cash & equivalents$224.8M18$168M19$153.7M19$123.6M19$135.1M19
Diluted shares59.6M58.9M59.0M58.3M57.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$289.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$44.45

10 shares is a claim on $289.52 of net worth that earned you $12.36 and generated $13.85 of cash last year, against $44.45 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 12%FY23 17%FY24 20%FY25 19%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 11% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.39 and $18.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$84.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$84.7M
Earnings Power Value
$18.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$104M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.98
The three cases
Bear0.0%$18.98
Base0.0%$18.98
Bull5.0%$24.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004702-24-000011 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004702-25-000012 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004702-26-000015 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004702-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004702-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004702-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004702-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004702-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004702-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004702-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004702-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004702-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004702-22-000022 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004702-23-000017 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001004702-24-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001004702-25-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001004702-26-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001004702-25-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001004702-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)