MeritValue

Owens Corning

OCdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Owens Corning earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $119.12 and $124.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.5B1$9.76B2$8.37B3$9.85B3$10.1B3
Net income$995M4$1.24B5$1.2B6$647M6−$522M6
Operating cash flow$1.5B7$1.76B8$1.72B9$1.89B9$1.79B9
Capital expenditure$416M10$446M11$526M12$647M12$824M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.09B7$1.31B8$1.19B9$1.25B9$962M9
Total debt$5.98B13$6.04B14$5.69B15$10.2B16$9.9B16
Cash & equivalents$959M17$1.1B18$1.62B18$321M19$345M19
Diluted shares104.3M97.7M91.0M87.8M84.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$458.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$62.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$114.52
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,177.98

10 shares is a claim on $458.69 of net worth that earned you −$62.14 and generated $114.52 of cash last year, against $1,177.98 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 14%FY23 12%FY24 7%FY25 1%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 66% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $119.12 and $124.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$124.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$1.19B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$119.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$1.19B
Earnings Power Value
$122.75
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$995M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $119.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$89.23
Base3.2%$119.12
Bull8.2%$174.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001370946-24-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001370946-25-000077 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001370946-26-000067 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001370946-24-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001370946-25-000077 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001370946-26-000067 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001370946-24-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001370946-25-000077 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001370946-26-000067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001370946-24-000046 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001370946-25-000077 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001370946-26-000067 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001370946-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001370946-24-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001370946-25-000077 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001370946-26-000067 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001370946-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001370946-25-000077 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001370946-26-000067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)