MeritValue

Orange County Bancorp, Inc. /DE/

OBTdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Orange County Bancorp, Inc. /DE/ earns about 199% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 152% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.1 and $211.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$64.4M1$84.2M2$117.8M3$127.2M4$135M4
Net income$21.3M5$24.4M6$29.5M7$27.9M8$41.6M8
Operating cash flow$20.3M9$30.5M10$44.5M11$34.6M12$43.8M12
Capital expenditure$1.96M13$1.55M14$3.54M15$1.73M16$2.52M16
Free cash flow (derived)$18.4M9$28.9M10$41M11$32.9M12$41.3M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$306.2M17$86.1M18$147.4M19$150.3M19$204.2M19
Diluted shares5.0M5.6M11.3M11.3M12.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$227.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.04
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $227.33 of net worth that earned you $33.27 and generated $33.04 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
199% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 56%FY23 293%FY24 288%FY25 157%

It earned about 199% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+152% shares · 5y

Share count is up 152% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.1 and $211.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$211.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$41M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$123.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$41M
Earnings Power Value
$23.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$27.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$41.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $123.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.12
Base20.0%$123.1
Bull20.0%$123.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004543 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004354 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003120 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028308 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004543 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004354 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003120 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028308 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004543 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004354 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003120 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028308 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004543 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004354 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003120 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028308 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004354 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003120 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028308 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)