Origin Bancorp, Inc.
OBKdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Origin Bancorp, Inc. earns about 134% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 33% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.71 and $60.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $241.7M1 | $326.6M2 | $523.4M3 | $564.6M3 | $538M3 |
| Net income | $108.5M4 | $87.7M5 | $83.8M6 | $76.5M6 | $75.2M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $171.5M7 | $145.6M8 | $129.9M9 | $108.5M9 | $158.9M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.02M10 | $8.47M11 | $26.8M12 | $22M12 | $7.87M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $166.5M7 | $137.2M8 | $103.1M9 | $86.4M9 | $151.1M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $705.6M13 | $359M14 | $280.4M15 | $470.2M16 | $424.2M16 |
| Diluted shares | 23.6M | 26.8M | 30.9M | 31.2M | 31.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $397.88 of net worth that earned you $24 and generated $48.21 of cash last year.
It earned about 134% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 33% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.71 and $60.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$103.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$103.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$83.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $60.55 |
| Base | 0.0% | $60.55 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $71.93 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001516912-25-000061 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001516912-25-000064 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001516912-26-000011 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001516912-25-000061 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001516912-25-000064 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001516912-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001516912-25-000061 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001516912-25-000064 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001516912-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001516912-25-000061 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001516912-25-000064 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001516912-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001516912-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001516912-25-000061 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001516912-25-000064 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001516912-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)