MeritValue

Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc.

OBIOdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc. earns about -119% on equity, but has diluted owners by 133% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$3.53M1$2.76M2$2.64M3$33.5M3
Net income−$378,7534−$33.6M5−$49.1M6−$61M7−$52.7M7
Operating cash flow−$272,3628−$29.3M9−$46.1M10−$50.6M11−$49M11
Capital expenditure—$591,00012$78,00013$289,00014$489,00014
Free cash flow (derived)—−$29.9M9−$46.2M10−$50.8M11−$49.5M11
Total debt———$15M15$15M16
Cash & equivalents$1.75M17$19.8M18$30.6M19$22.3M20$34.7M20
Diluted shares20.4M15.0M33.2M36.8M47.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.04
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.14

10 shares is a claim on $11.22 of net worth that earned you −$11.04 and generated −$10.36 of cash last year, against $3.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-119% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -72%FY24 -185%FY25 -98%

It earned an average -119% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+133% shares · 5y

Share count is up 133% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004083 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004161 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026754 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-005085 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004161 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026754 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-005085 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004161 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026754 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004083 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004161 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026754 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004161 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026754 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-005085 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004083 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004161 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026754 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)