MeritValue

Blue Owl Capital Corp

OBDCdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Blue Owl Capital Corp earns about 10% on equity, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $12.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$624.9M1$466.4M2$793.3M3$595M3$627.4M3
Operating cash flow−$1.23B4$217.3M5$1.14B6$160.2M6$1.74B6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$7.08B7$7.28B8$7.08B9$7.46B10$9.3B10
Cash & equivalents$447.1M11$445.1M12$659.7M12$514.2M12$568.5M12
Diluted shares392.3M394.0M390.1M390.1M506.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$146.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.4
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$183.76

10 shares is a claim on $146.16 of net worth that earned you $12.4 last year, against $183.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
10% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 8%FY23 13%FY24 10%FY25 8%

It earned an average 10% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 31% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$12.79
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$624.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655888-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655888-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001655888-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655888-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655888-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001655888-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655888-23-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655888-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001655888-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001655888-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655888-25-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655888-26-000010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)