MeritValue

REALTY INCOME CORP

Odata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

REALTY INCOME CORP earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 119% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.92 and $226.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.08B1$3.34B2$4.08B3$5.27B3$5.75B3
Net income$359.5M4$869.4M5$872.3M6$860.8M6$1.06B6
Operating cash flow$1.32B7$2.56B8$2.96B9$3.57B9$3.99B9
Capital expenditure$19.1M10$95.5M11$68.7M12$121.4M12$131.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.3B7$2.47B8$2.89B9$3.45B9$3.86B9
Total debt$901.4M13$701.8M14$764.4M15$67.3M16$516.8M16
Cash & equivalents$258.6M17$171.1M18$232.9M19$445M20$434.8M20
Diluted shares414.8M612.2M693.0M863.8M908.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$434.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$42.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.69

10 shares is a claim on $434.19 of net worth that earned you $11.65 and generated $42.53 of cash last year, against $5.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 4%FY23 5%FY24 2%FY25 3%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+119% shares · 5y

Share count is up 119% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 43% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.92 and $226.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$226.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.45B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$123.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.45B
Earnings Power Value
$9.92
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$869.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $123.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$54.21
Base20.0%$123.81
Bull20.0%$123.81

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000726728-24-000047 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726728-25-000055 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726728-26-000011 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000726728-24-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726728-25-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726728-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000726728-24-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726728-25-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726728-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000726728-24-000047 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726728-25-000055 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726728-26-000011 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000726728-23-000044 (CommercialPaper)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726728-24-000047 (CommercialPaper)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726728-25-000055 (CommercialPaper)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000726728-26-000011 (CommercialPaper)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000726728-23-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726728-24-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726728-25-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000726728-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)