MeritValue

NEW YORK TIMES CO

NYTdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NEW YORK TIMES CO earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.6 and $116.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.07B1$2.31B2$2.43B3$2.59B3$2.82B3
Net income$220M4$173.9M5$232.4M6$293.8M6$344M6
Operating cash flow$269.1M7$150.7M8$360.6M9$410.5M9$584.5M9
Capital expenditure$34.6M10$37M11$22.7M12$29.2M12$34M12
Free cash flow (derived)$234.5M7$113.7M8$337.9M9$381.3M9$550.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$320M13$221.4M14$289.5M15$199.4M16$255.4M16
Diluted shares168.5M167.1M165.7M165.8M164.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$123.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.38
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $123.76 of net worth that earned you $20.85 and generated $33.38 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 15%FY23 17%FY24 19%FY25 19%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.6 and $116.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$116.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.6%
  • fcfBase$381.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$70.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.6%
  • fcfBase$381.3M
Earnings Power Value
$14.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$232.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.12
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $70.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$34.58
Base17.6%$70.22
Bull20.0%$76.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000071691-24-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000071691-25-000047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000071691-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000071691-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000071691-25-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000071691-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000071691-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000071691-25-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000071691-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000071691-24-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000071691-25-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000071691-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000071691-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000071691-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000071691-25-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000071691-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)