Nayax Ltd.

NYAXdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Nayax Ltd. earns about -27% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.2 and $26.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$119.1M1$173.5M2$235.5M3$314M3$400.4M3
Net income−$24.8M4−$37.5M5−$15.9M6−$5.63M6$35.5M6
Operating cash flow−$12.8M7−$27.5M8$8.8M9$42.9M9$40.3M9
Capital expenditure$2.64M10$1.52M11$611,00012$3.08M12$5.33M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$15.4M7−$29.1M8$8.19M9$39.8M9$35M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$87.3M13$33.9M14$38.4M14$83.1M14$319.5M14
Diluted shares30.2M33.0M33.3M36.6M37.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$61.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.52
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.37
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $61.93 of net worth that earned you $9.52 and generated $9.37 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-27% avg · 5y
FY21 -43%FY22 -41%FY23 -20%FY24 -4%FY25

It earned about -27% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.2 and $26.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$26.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$35M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$35M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$11.46
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$21.96
Base5.0%$25.2
Bull10.0%$29.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000746 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000680 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000779 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000746 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000680 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000779 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000746 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000680 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000779 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000746 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000680 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000779 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000680 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000779 (CashAndCashEquivalents)