Nayax Ltd.
NYAXdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Nayax Ltd. earns about -27% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.2 and $26.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $119.1M1 | $173.5M2 | $235.5M3 | $314M3 | $400.4M3 |
| Net income | −$24.8M4 | −$37.5M5 | −$15.9M6 | −$5.63M6 | $35.5M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$12.8M7 | −$27.5M8 | $8.8M9 | $42.9M9 | $40.3M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.64M10 | $1.52M11 | $611,00012 | $3.08M12 | $5.33M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$15.4M7 | −$29.1M8 | $8.19M9 | $39.8M9 | $35M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $87.3M13 | $33.9M14 | $38.4M14 | $83.1M14 | $319.5M14 |
| Diluted shares | 30.2M | 33.0M | 33.3M | 36.6M | 37.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $61.93 of net worth that earned you $9.52 and generated $9.37 of cash last year.
It earned about -27% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.2 and $26.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$35M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$35M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $21.96 |
| Base | 5.0% | $25.2 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $29.08 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000746 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000680 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000779 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000746 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000680 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000779 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000746 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000680 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000779 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000746 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000680 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000779 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000680 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000779 (CashAndCashEquivalents)