MeritValue

NextCure, Inc.

NXTCdata completeness 63%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

NextCure, Inc. earns about -75% on equity, and has bought back 90% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$69.4M1−$74.7M2−$62.7M3−$55.7M4−$55.8M4
Operating cash flow−$57.3M5−$53.9M6−$53M7−$40.8M8−$49.6M8
Capital expenditure$2.36M9$2.12M10$820,00011$474,00012—
Free cash flow (derived)−$59.6M5−$56M6−$53.8M7−$41.3M8—
Total debt$013$014———
Cash & equivalents$12.3M15$26.6M16$13.1M17$27.7M18$26M18
Diluted shares27.6M27.7M27.8M2.3M2.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$122.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$196.46
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $122.93 of net worth that earned you −$196.46 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-75% avg · 5y
FY21 -30%FY22 -45%FY23 -55%FY24 -85%FY25 -160%

It earned an average -75% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−90% shares · 5y

Share count is down 90% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002698 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003672 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002402 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024137 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002698 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003672 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002402 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024137 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002698 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003672 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002402 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024137 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-002824 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002698 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002698 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003672 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002402 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024137 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)