Nextpower Inc.
NXTdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Nextpower Inc. earns about 61% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.78 and $207.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.46B1 | $1.9B2 | $2.5B3 | $2.96B3 | $3.56B3 |
| Net income | $04 | $1.14M5 | $306.2M6 | $509.2M6 | $585.9M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$147.1M7 | $107.7M8 | $429M9 | $655.8M9 | $562.9M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.92M10 | $3.18M11 | $6.16M12 | $33.9M12 | $49.3M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$153M7 | $104.5M8 | $422.8M9 | $621.9M9 | $513.6M9 |
| Total debt | $013 | $147.1M14 | $147.7M15 | $015 | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $29.1M16 | $130M17 | $474.1M18 | $766.1M19 | $1.09B19 |
| Diluted shares | — | 145.9M | 147.3M | 149.3M | 152.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $152.86 of net worth that earned you $38.37 and generated $33.63 of cash last year.
It earned about 61% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.78 and $207.77 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$513.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$513.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$306.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $55.23 |
| Base | 20.0% | $116.83 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $116.83 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-26-000017 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001193125-23-163921 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001193125-23-163921 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001852131-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)