Nextpower Inc.

NXTdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Nextpower Inc. earns about 61% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.78 and $207.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.46B1$1.9B2$2.5B3$2.96B3$3.56B3
Net income$04$1.14M5$306.2M6$509.2M6$585.9M6
Operating cash flow−$147.1M7$107.7M8$429M9$655.8M9$562.9M9
Capital expenditure$5.92M10$3.18M11$6.16M12$33.9M12$49.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$153M7$104.5M8$422.8M9$621.9M9$513.6M9
Total debt$013$147.1M14$147.7M15$015
Cash & equivalents$29.1M16$130M17$474.1M18$766.1M19$1.09B19
Diluted shares145.9M147.3M149.3M152.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$152.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.63
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $152.86 of net worth that earned you $38.37 and generated $33.63 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
61% avg · 5y
FY22 FY23 FY24 75%FY25 60%FY26 47%

It earned about 61% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.78 and $207.77 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$207.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$513.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$116.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$513.6M
Earnings Power Value
$20.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$306.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $116.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$55.23
Base20.0%$116.83
Bull20.0%$116.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-26-000017 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001193125-23-163921 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001193125-23-163921 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-025460 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001852131-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001852131-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)