MeritValue

NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC.

NXSTdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC. earns about 2% on invested capital, and has bought back 30% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $243.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.65B1$5.21B2$4.93B3$5.41B3$4.95B3
Net income$834M4$971M5$346M6$722M6$109M6
Operating cash flow$1.22B7$1.4B8$999M9$1.25B9$891M9
Capital expenditure$151M10$157M11$149M12$145M12$148M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.06B7$1.25B8$850M9$1.11B9$743M9
Total debt$14.8B13$13.9B14$13.7B15$13B16$12.7B16
Cash & equivalents$190.9M17$204M18$135M19$144M20$280M20
Diluted shares44.0M40.2M35.8M32.8M30.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$672.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$35.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$241.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$4,124.79

10 shares is a claim on $672.16 of net worth that earned you $35.5 and generated $241.96 of cash last year, against $4,124.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 4%FY23 -0%FY24 2%FY25 1%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−30% shares · 5y

Share count is down 30% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$850M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$850M
Earnings Power Value
$243.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$722M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$67.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021979 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028949 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078361 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021979 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028949 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078361 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021979 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028949 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078361 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021979 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028949 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078361 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005209 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021979 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028949 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078361 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005209 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021979 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028949 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-078361 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)