MeritValue

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.

NXRTdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. earns about 0% on equity, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$219.2M1$264M2$277.5M3$259.7M3$251.3M3
Net income$23M4−$9.26M5$44.3M6$1.11M6−$32M6
Operating cash flow$73.3M7$79.1M8$96.6M9$73.6M9$83.6M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.56B10$1.68B11$1.58B12—$1.59B13
Cash & equivalents$49.5M14$16.8M15$12.4M16$23.1M17$13.7M17
Diluted shares25.8M25.6M26.2M26.2M25.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$116.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.61
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$627.51

10 shares is a claim on $116.38 of net worth that earned you −$12.61 last year, against $627.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
0% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 -2%FY23 9%FY24 0%FY25 -11%

It earned an average 0% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.11M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021143 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027741 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077343 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021143 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027741 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077343 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021143 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027741 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077343 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-005606 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002337 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021143 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077343 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002337 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021143 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027741 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077343 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)