MeritValue

NXP Semiconductors N.V.

NXPIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NXP Semiconductors N.V. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $50.55 and $102.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.1B1$13.2B2$13.3B3$12.6B3$12.3B3
Net income$1.87B4$2.79B5$2.8B6$2.51B6$2.02B6
Operating cash flow$3.08B7$3.9B8$3.51B9$2.78B9$2.82B9
Capital expenditure$767M10$1.06B11$827M12$727M12$397M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.31B7$2.83B8$2.69B9$2.06B9$2.42B9
Total debt$10.7B13$11.3B14$23.4B15$23.8B16$26.5B16
Cash & equivalents$2.83B17$3.85B18$3.86B19$3.29B20$3.27B20
Diluted shares275.6M264.1M261.4M257.8M254.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$395.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$79.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$95.27
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,042.42

10 shares is a claim on $395.39 of net worth that earned you $79.46 and generated $95.27 of cash last year, against $1,042.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 22%FY23 11%FY24 10%FY25 8%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 149% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $50.55 and $102.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$50.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.6%
  • fcfBase$2.42B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$54.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.6%
  • fcfBase$2.42B
Earnings Power Value
$102.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.51B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$84.1
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $54.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$44.72
Base1.6%$54.64
Bull6.6%$89.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413447-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413447-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001413447-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413447-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413447-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001413447-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413447-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413447-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001413447-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413447-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413447-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001413447-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413447-22-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413447-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001413447-25-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001413447-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413447-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413447-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001413447-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001413447-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)