MeritValue

NEXGEL, INC.

NXGLdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NEXGEL, INC. earns about -42% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 164% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.55M1$2.05M2$4.09M3$8.69M4$11.4M4
Net income−$4.31M5−$4.75M6−$3.16M7−$3.28M8−$3M8
Operating cash flow−$2.75M9−$2.99M10−$3.24M11−$3.87M12−$1.31M12
Capital expenditure$269,00013$96,00014$696,00015$443,00016$68,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.02M9−$3.09M10−$3.93M11−$4.31M12−$1.38M12
Total debt—$283,00017$838,00018$685,00019$588,00020
Cash & equivalents$13.4M21————
Diluted shares3.0M5.6M5.7M6.5M7.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.82
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.76
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.75

10 shares is a claim on $5.68 of net worth that earned you −$3.82 and generated −$1.76 of cash last year, against $0.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-42% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -34%FY23 -45%FY24 -42%FY25 -45%

It earned an average -42% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+164% shares · 5y

Share count is up 164% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 108% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-009190 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014127 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000937 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014377 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-009190 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014127 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000937 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014377 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-009190 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014127 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000937 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014377 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-009190 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014127 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000937 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014377 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-009190 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-014127 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000937 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014377 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-000442 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)