MeritValue

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.

NXDRdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. earns about -21% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 164% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$192.2M1$212.8M2$218.3M3$247.3M3$257.6M3
Net income−$95.3M4−$137.9M5−$147.8M6−$98.1M6−$54.2M6
Operating cash flow−$51.3M7−$60.5M8−$59.3M9−$20.2M9$6.47M9
Capital expenditure$8.85M10$3.16M11$267,00012$404,00012$580,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$60.1M7−$63.7M8−$59.5M9−$20.6M9$5.89M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$521.8M13$55.2M14$60.2M15$45.6M15$63.3M15
Diluted shares146.3M378.7M379.3M385.1M386.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.15
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $11.16 of net worth that earned you −$1.4 and generated $0.15 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-21% avg · 5y
FY21 -34%FY22 -19%FY23 -23%FY24 -19%FY25 -11%

It earned an average -21% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+164% shares · 5y

Share count is up 164% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001846069-24-000047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001846069-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001846069-26-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001846069-24-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001846069-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001846069-26-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001846069-24-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001846069-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001846069-26-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001846069-24-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001846069-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001846069-26-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001846069-24-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001846069-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001846069-26-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)