MeritValue

Quanex Building Products CORP

NXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Quanex Building Products CORP earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 38% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.79 and $102.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.07B1$1.22B2$1.13B3$1.28B3$1.84B4
Net income$57M5$88.3M6$82.5M7$33.1M7−$250.8M7
Operating cash flow$78.6M8$98M9$147.1M10$88.8M10$164.9M10
Capital expenditure$24M11$33.1M12$37.4M13$37.1M13$62.6M13
Free cash flow (derived)$54.6M8$64.8M9$109.7M10$51.7M10$102.3M10
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$40.1M14$55.1M15$58.5M16$97.7M17$76M17
Diluted shares33.5M33.2M33.0M36.6M46.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$157.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$54.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$22.15
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $157.28 of net worth that earned you −$54.32 and generated $22.15 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 22%FY23 18%FY24 5%FY25 -23%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+38% shares · 5y

Share count is up 38% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.79 and $102.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$102.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.4%
  • fcfBase$102.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$64.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.4%
  • fcfBase$102.3M
Earnings Power Value
$12.79
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$57M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $64.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$33.29
Base16.4%$64.38
Bull20.0%$73.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001423221-23-000016 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001423221-24-000015 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001423221-25-000100 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-10-31 · accession 0001423221-25-000100 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001423221-23-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001423221-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001423221-25-000100 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001423221-23-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001423221-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001423221-25-000100 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001423221-23-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001423221-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001423221-25-000100 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001423221-22-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001423221-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001423221-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001423221-25-000100 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)