MeritValue

NEWS CORP

NWSAdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NEWS CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6 and $15.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.36B1$10.4B2$8.01B3$8.25B3$8.45B3
Net income$330M4$623M5$149M6$266M6$1.18B6
Operating cash flow$1.24B7$1.35B8$1.09B8$1.1B8$978M9
Capital expenditure$390M10$499M11$347M12$357M12$407M12
Free cash flow (derived)$847M7$855M8$745M8$741M8$571M9
Total debt$4.63B13$6.14B14$5.93B15$4.2B16$3.92B16
Cash & equivalents$2.24B17$1.82B18$1.76B19$1.87B19$2.4B19
Diluted shares593.4M592.5M578.8M573.5M569.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$153.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$68.85

10 shares is a claim on $153.96 of net worth that earned you $20.71 and generated $10.02 of cash last year, against $68.85 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 6%FY23 2%FY24 4%FY25 6%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6 and $15.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$741M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$741M
Earnings Power Value
$6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$330M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.78
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.91
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.91
Base0.0%$15.91
Bull5.0%$20.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564708-23-000368 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001564708-24-000408 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001564708-25-000419 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564708-23-000368 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001564708-24-000408 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001564708-25-000419 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564708-23-000368 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001564708-24-000408 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001564708-25-000419 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564708-23-000368 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001564708-24-000408 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001564708-25-000419 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564708-22-000265 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001564708-23-000368 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001564708-24-000408 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001564708-25-000419 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564708-22-000265 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001564708-23-000368 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001564708-25-000419 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)