MeritValue

NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.

NWPXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $32.48 and $67.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$333.3M1$457.7M2$444.4M3$492.5M3$526M3
Net income$11.5M4$31.1M5$21.1M6$34.2M6$35.4M6
Operating cash flow−$5.81M7$17.5M8$53.5M9$55.1M9$67.3M9
Capital expenditure$13.3M10$22.8M11$18.3M12$20.8M12$20.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$19.1M7−$5.29M8$35.2M9$34.3M9$47.1M9
Total debt$013$10.8M14$10.8M15$14.5M16$11.5M16
Cash & equivalents$3M17$3.68M18$4.07M19$5.01M20$2.27M20
Diluted shares9.9M10.0M10.1M10.1M9.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$397.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$35.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$47.4
Debt you’d be carrying
$11.55

10 shares is a claim on $397.29 of net worth that earned you $35.64 and generated $47.4 of cash last year, against $11.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 10%FY23 7%FY24 10%FY25 9%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $32.48 and $67.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$67.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$35.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$61.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$35.2M
Earnings Power Value
$32.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$31.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$56.41
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $61.87
The three cases
Bear0.0%$49.63
Base5.0%$61.87
Bull10.0%$76.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006640 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005465 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005861 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006640 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005465 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005861 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006640 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005465 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005861 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006640 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005465 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005861 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006891 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006640 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005465 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005861 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006891 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006640 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005465 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005861 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)