MeritValue

NEW PEOPLES BANKSHARES INC

NWPPdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

NEW PEOPLES BANKSHARES INC earns about 284% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.55 and $7.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.72M1$3.97M2$3.89M3$3.84M4$3.62M4
Net income$7.01M5$8.08M6$7.18M7$8.2M8$10.1M8
Operating cash flow$13.8M9$13.8M10$7.4M11$8.34M12$12.3M12
Capital expenditure$4.09M13$548,00014$1.48M15$1.79M16$815,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$9.71M9$13.3M10$5.93M11$6.55M12$11.5M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$60.9M17$61.7M18$65M19$67.7M20$77.2M20
Diluted shares24.0M23.90B23.8M23.7M23.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.87
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $35.11 of net worth that earned you $4.28 and generated $4.87 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
284% avg · 5y
FY21 340%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 318%FY25 195%

It earned about 284% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.55 and $7.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.55M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.55M
Earnings Power Value
$3.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.08M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.24
Base0.0%$7.24
Bull5.0%$8.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001903596-23-000257 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001903596-24-000204 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001903596-25-000149 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001903596-26-000116 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001903596-23-000257 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001903596-24-000204 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001903596-25-000149 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001903596-26-000116 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001903596-23-000257 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001903596-24-000204 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001903596-25-000149 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001903596-26-000116 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001903596-23-000257 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001903596-24-000204 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001903596-25-000149 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001903596-26-000116 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001903596-23-000257 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001903596-24-000204 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001903596-25-000149 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001903596-26-000116 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)