MeritValue

Northwest Natural Holding Co

NWNdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Northwest Natural Holding Co earns about 7% on equity, but has diluted owners by 33% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$828.2M1$1.04B2$1.17B3$1.12B3$1.21B3
Net income$78.7M4$86.3M5$93.9M6$78.9M6$113.3M6
Operating cash flow$160.4M7$147.7M8$279.9M9$200.3M9$269.1M9
Capital expenditure$293.9M10$338.6M11$327.3M12$394.4M12$466.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$133.5M7−$190.9M8−$47.4M9−$194.1M9−$197.8M9
Total debt$2.48B13$2.93B14$3.24B15$3.59B16$5.04B16
Cash & equivalents$18.6M17$29.3M18$32.9M19$38.5M20$36.7M20
Diluted shares30.8M34.0M36.3M38.9M41.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$360.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.67
Free cash flow it threw off
−$48.29
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,230.1

10 shares is a claim on $360.19 of net worth that earned you $27.67 and generated −$48.29 of cash last year, against $1,230.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
7% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 7%FY23 7%FY24 6%FY25 8%

It earned an average 7% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+33% shares · 5y

Share count is up 33% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 103% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$21.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$86.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.38
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001733998-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001733998-25-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001733998-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001733998-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001733998-25-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001733998-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001733998-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001733998-25-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001733998-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001733998-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001733998-25-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001733998-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001733998-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001733998-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001733998-25-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001733998-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001733998-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001733998-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001733998-25-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001733998-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)