MeritValue

NEWELL BRANDS INC.

NWLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NEWELL BRANDS INC. earns about 1% on invested capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.6B1$9.46B2$8.13B3$7.58B3$7.2B3
Net income$622M4$197M5−$388M6−$216M6−$285M6
Operating cash flow$884M7−$272M8$930M9$496M9$264M9
Capital expenditure$289M10$312M11$284M12$259M12$247M12
Free cash flow (derived)$595M7−$584M8$646M9$237M9$17M9
Total debt$4.89B13$5.74B14$4.9B15$4.6B16$4.67B16
Cash & equivalents$440M17$287M18$332M19$198M20$203M20
Diluted shares428.0M417.4M414.1M415.5M418.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$57.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.41
Debt you’d be carrying
$111.74

10 shares is a claim on $57.17 of net worth that earned you −$6.81 and generated $0.41 of cash last year, against $111.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 4%FY23 -3%FY24 -3%FY25 -3%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$237M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$237M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000814453-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000814453-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000814453-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000814453-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000814453-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000814453-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000814453-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000814453-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000814453-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000814453-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000814453-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000814453-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000814453-23-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000814453-24-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000814453-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000814453-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000814453-23-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000814453-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000814453-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000814453-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)