MeritValue

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.

NWEdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $31.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.33B1$1.46B1$1.55B1$1.51B2$1.61B2
Net income$186.8M3$183M4$194.1M5$224.1M5$181.1M5
Operating cash flow$220M6$307.2M7$489.2M8$406.7M8$394.5M8
Capital expenditure$434.3M9$515.1M10$566.9M11$549.2M11$524.5M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$214.4M6−$207.9M7−$77.7M8−$142.5M8−$130M8
Total debt—$5.38B12$5.57B13$6.09B14$6.72B14
Cash & equivalents$2.82M15$8.49M16$9.16M17$4.28M17$8.78M17
Diluted shares51.9M56.3M60.4M61.4M61.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$468.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.43
Free cash flow it threw off
−$21.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,092.27

10 shares is a claim on $468.91 of net worth that earned you $29.43 and generated −$21.12 of cash last year, against $1,092.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 2%FY23 2%FY24 2%FY25 2%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 25% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$31.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$186.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$55.69
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001993004-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001993004-26-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001993004-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001993004-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001993004-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001993004-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001993004-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001993004-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001993004-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001993004-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001993004-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001993004-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001993004-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001993004-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001993004-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001993004-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001993004-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)