Northwest Bancshares, Inc.
NWBIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileNorthwest Bancshares, Inc. earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.48 and $13.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $418.5M1 | $448.8M2 | $587.9M3 | $669.2M3 | $749.7M3 |
| Net income | $154.3M4 | $133.7M5 | $135M6 | $100.3M6 | $126M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $205.5M7 | $175.4M8 | $92.9M9 | $127.7M9 | $153.4M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $17.5M10 | $4.32M11 | $8.56M12 | $2.31M12 | $11.6M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $187.9M7 | $171.1M8 | $84.3M9 | $125.4M9 | $141.8M9 |
| Total debt | $139.1M13 | $681.2M14 | $398.9M15 | $200.3M15 | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.28B16 | $139.4M17 | $122.3M17 | $288.4M17 | $233.6M17 |
| Diluted shares | 127.0M | 126.7M | 127.0M | 127.5M | 146.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $129.39 of net worth that earned you $8.62 and generated $9.7 of cash last year.
It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 44% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.48 and $13.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$125.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$125.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$133.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $13.86 |
| Base | 0.0% | $13.86 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $16.83 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001471265-24-000009 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001471265-25-000016 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001471265-26-000008 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001471265-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001471265-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001471265-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001471265-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001471265-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001471265-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001471265-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001471265-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001471265-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001471265-23-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001471265-24-000009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001471265-25-000016 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001471265-25-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001471265-26-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)