MeritValue

NOVONIX Ltd

NVXdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NOVONIX Ltd earns about -31% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 129% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.89M1$6.1M1$8.05M1$5.85M2$5.62M2
Net income−$13.4M3−$51.9M4−$46.2M5−$74.8M5−$92.7M5
Operating cash flow−$6.09M6−$29.2M7−$36.2M8−$40.4M8−$42.2M8
Capital expenditure$19.5M9$83.7M10$19.2M11$29.9M11$60.2M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$25.6M6−$112.9M7−$55.4M8−$70.3M8−$102.4M8
Total debt$4.7M12$37M12$64.6M13$64.4M14$93.8M14
Cash & equivalents$102.6M15$142.7M15$78.7M16$42.6M16$79.9M16
Diluted shares366.3M486.0M488.7M488.7M840.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.1
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.12

10 shares is a claim on $1.92 of net worth that earned you −$1.1 and generated −$1.22 of cash last year, against $1.12 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-31% avg · 5y
FY21 -26%FY22 -28%FY23 -22%FY24 -37%FY25 -42%

It earned an average -31% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+129% shares · 5y

Share count is up 129% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1896% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-021622 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072814 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-021622 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-029488 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072814 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-021622 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-029488 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072814 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-021622 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-029488 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072814 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-004852 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029488 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072814 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-25-029488 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072814 (CashAndCashEquivalents)