MeritValue

nVent Electric plc

NVTdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

nVent Electric plc earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.17 and $70.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.46B1$2.3B2$2.67B3$3.01B3$3.89B3
Net income$272.9M4$399.8M5$567.1M6$331.8M6$710.2M6
Operating cash flow$373.3M7$394.6M8$528.1M9$643.1M9$465.2M9
Capital expenditure$39.5M10$40.5M11$65.6M12$74M12$93.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$333.8M7$354.1M8$462.5M9$569.1M9$371.9M9
Total debt$2B13$2.18B14$3.59B15$4.35B16$3.13B16
Cash & equivalents$49.5M17$297.5M18$185.1M18$131.2M19$237.5M19
Diluted shares169.7M168.3M168.2M168.2M164.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$226.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$43.15
Free cash flow it threw off
$22.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$190.36

10 shares is a claim on $226.62 of net worth that earned you $43.15 and generated $22.59 of cash last year, against $190.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 7%FY23 7%FY24 2%FY25 6%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 57% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.17 and $70.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$70.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.5%
  • fcfBase$462.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$47.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.5%
  • fcfBase$462.5M
Earnings Power Value
$25.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$399.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$46.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $47.75
The three cases
Bear0.0%$22.55
Base11.5%$47.75
Bull16.5%$62.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001720635-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001720635-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008608 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001720635-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001720635-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008608 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001720635-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001720635-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008608 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001720635-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001720635-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008608 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001720635-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001720635-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001720635-25-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008608 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001720635-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001720635-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008608 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)