NOVARTIS AG
NVSdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
NOVARTIS AG earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $75.94 and $179.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $24B1 | $6.96B2 | $14.9B3 | $11.9B3 | $14B3 |
| Operating cash flow | $15.1B4 | $14.2B5 | $14.5B6 | $17.6B6 | $19.1B6 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.07B7 | $916M8 | $1.06B9 | $1.37B9 | $1.55B9 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $14B4 | $13.3B5 | $13.4B6 | $16.3B6 | $17.6B6 |
| Total debt | $25.5B10 | $22.5B11 | $20.6B12 | $24.7B13 | $28.7B13 |
| Cash & equivalents | $12.4B14 | $7.52B15 | $13.4B15 | $11.5B15 | $11.4B15 |
| Diluted shares | 2.23B | 2.12B | 2.04B | 1.98B | 1.91B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $241.75 of net worth that earned you $73.29 and generated $92.21 of cash last year, against $150.56 of debt.
It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 13% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $75.94 and $179.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth6.9%
- fcfBase$16.3B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth6.9%
- fcfBase$16.3B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$14B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $112.64 |
| Base | 6.9% | $154.47 |
| Bull | 11.9% | $192.08 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 6.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001370368-24-000004 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001370368-25-000004 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001114448-26-000004 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001370368-24-000004 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001370368-25-000004 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001114448-26-000004 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001370368-24-000004 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001370368-25-000004 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001114448-26-000004 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001370368-23-000048 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001370368-24-000004 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001370368-25-000004 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001114448-26-000004 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001370368-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001114448-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalents)