MeritValue

NVR INC

NVRdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

NVR INC earns about 40% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $5,374.01 and $7,993.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.95B1$10.5B2$9.52B3$10.5B3$10.3B3
Net income$1.24B4$1.73B5$1.59B6$1.68B6$1.34B6
Operating cash flow$1.24B7$1.87B8$1.5B9$1.37B9$1.12B9
Capital expenditure$17.9M10$18.4M11$24.9M12$29.2M12$24.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.22B7$1.85B8$1.47B9$1.35B9$1.1B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.64B13$2.57B14$3.22B14$2.66B14$1.96B14
Diluted shares3.9M3.5M3.4M3.3M3.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12,592.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4,365.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$3,573.72
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $12,592.83 of net worth that earned you $4,365.5 and generated $3,573.72 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
40% avg · 5y
FY21 41%FY22 49%FY23 36%FY24 40%FY25 35%

It earned about 40% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5,374.01 and $7,993.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7,993.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$1.35B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7,833.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$1.35B
Earnings Power Value
$5,374.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.59B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3,516.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7,833.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6,900.22
Base3.2%$7,833.22
Bull8.2%$9,534.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000906163-24-000033 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000906163-25-000011 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000906163-26-000018 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000906163-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000906163-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000906163-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000906163-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000906163-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000906163-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000906163-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000906163-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000906163-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000906163-25-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000906163-26-000018 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)