MeritValue

NOVA LTD.

NVMIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

NOVA LTD. earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $44,298.31 and $402,780.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$416.1M1$570.7M2$517.9M3$672.4M3$880.6M3
Net income$93.1M4$140.2M5$136.3M6$183.8M6$259.2M6
Operating cash flow$132.3M7$119.5M8$123.5M9$235.3M9$245.6M9
Capital expenditure$4.82M10$21.3M11$17.2M12$17.2M12$27.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$127.4M7$98.2M8$106.3M9$218.1M9$217.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$126.7M13$111.1M14$107.6M15$157.8M15$214.5M15
Diluted shares29,81631,87032,08932,13832,800

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$401,904.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$79,031.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$66,437.5
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $401,904.88 of net worth that earned you $79,031.4 and generated $66,437.5 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 28%FY22 30%FY23 21%FY24 24%FY25 24%

It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44,298.31 and $402,780.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$402,780.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$217.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$223,148.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$217.9M
Earnings Power Value
$44,298.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$140.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2,682.93
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $223,148.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$101,462.73
Base20.0%$223,148.56
Bull20.0%$223,148.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000649 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000572 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000504 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000649 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000572 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000504 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000649 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000572 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000504 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000649 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000572 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000504 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000649 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000572 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000504 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)