MeritValue

Navigator Holdings Ltd.

NVGSdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Navigator Holdings Ltd. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.53 and $102.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$352.9M1$405.3M2$493.3M3$511.7M3$538.5M3
Net income−$31M4$53.5M5$82.3M6$85.6M6$100.1M6
Operating cash flow$97.9M7$130.3M8$174.4M9$210.5M9$201.7M9
Capital expenditure—$45.7M10$191.7M11$011$85M11
Free cash flow (derived)—$84.6M8−$17.3M9$210.5M9$116.6M9
Total debt$1.62B12$1.52B13$803.6M14$755.1M14$168.1M15
Cash & equivalents$123.9M16$146.7M17$149.6M18$130.8M18$155M18
Diluted shares64.7M77.6M74.6M71.8M68.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$180.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$24.7

10 shares is a claim on $180.32 of net worth that earned you $14.72 and generated $17.14 of cash last year, against $24.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 3%FY23 7%FY24 4%FY25 8%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 90% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.53 and $102.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$102.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$116.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$55.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$116.6M
Earnings Power Value
$12.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$82.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.42
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $55.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$24.3
Base20.0%$55.7
Bull20.0%$55.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013304 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014751 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017320 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013304 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014751 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017320 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013304 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014751 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017320 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014751 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017320 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-091037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013304 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014751 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017320 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-091037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014751 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017320 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)