MeritValue

NVIDIA CORP

NVDAdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NVIDIA CORP earns about 48% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 867% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.58 and $147.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$26.9B1$27B2$60.9B3$130.5B3$215.9B3
Net income$9.75B4$4.37B5$29.8B6$72.9B6$120.1B6
Operating cash flow$9.11B7$5.64B8$28.1B9$64.1B9$102.7B9
Capital expenditure$976M10$1.83B11$1.07B12$3.24B12$6.04B12
Free cash flow (derived)$8.13B7$3.81B8$27B9$60.9B9$96.7B9
Total debt$21.9B13$23.2B14$20.7B15$16.9B16$17.9B16
Cash & equivalents$1.99B17$3.39B18$7.28B19$8.59B20$10.6B20
Diluted shares2.54B25.07B24.94B24.80B24.51B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$64.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$48.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.44
Debt you’d be carrying
$7.32

10 shares is a claim on $64.16 of net worth that earned you $48.98 and generated $39.44 of cash last year, against $7.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
48% avg · 5y
FY22 21%FY23 11%FY24 53%FY25 83%FY26 73%

It earned about 48% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+867% shares · 5y

Share count is up 867% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 18% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.58 and $147.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$147.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$60.9B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$80.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$60.9B
Earnings Power Value
$12.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$29.8B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $80.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.17
Base20.0%$80.64
Bull20.0%$80.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001045810-22-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001045810-25-000023 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001045810-26-000021 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001045810-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001045810-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001045810-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001045810-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001045810-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001045810-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001045810-24-000029 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001045810-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001045810-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001045810-23-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001045810-24-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001045810-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-26 · accession 0001045810-26-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001045810-23-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001045810-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001045810-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-26 · accession 0001045810-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)